Hong Kong’s economic start to 2020 is ideal
Not only has China and the United States reached the first phase of the trade agreement, but the new market sales at the beginning of the month have also been reported. However, Zhang Qiaochu, managing director of Hongliang Consulting and Evaluation, said yesterday after attending a radio program that due to the unresolved local political events and tensions in the Middle East, investors’ confidence in the market is expected to be affected. Among them, luxury houses and nanometer buildings are expected to be under pressure. In the first two quarters of this year, the market conditions in Hong Kong were weak, and property prices fell by about 5% to 10%.
Local political events remain unresolved
Zhang Qiaochu said that if after the Lunar New Year, banks will relax mortgage loans and “social events” will calm down, the property market may have a chance to turn around this year. If the inflation level in Hong Kong is at 2%, the trend of second-hand property prices throughout the year, It will fall between 5% and 3%. He also pointed out that changing the ratio of public and private housing to seven to three is a good thing in the long run, but the speed of housing construction by the Housing Authority and the Housing Society is in doubt. If the speed of housing construction is slower than that of developers and the supply is reduced, the public will wait for housing. Will not improve.
Regarding the recent development of a number of developers to lend land to the government to build transitional housing, he believes that the project is difficult to operate because the time limit for borrowing land is only 8 to 10 years. If the government fails to provide sufficient public housing at that time, citizens will be forced to move out of transitional Housing, social response will be very big.
Commercial land affected office vacancies increase
As for the land price trend this year, he mentioned that the office vacancy rate in Hong Kong is as high as 6%, and the vacancy rate in the central area is about 3.5% to 4%. In addition, the rental of Admiralty Lippo Centre has fallen sharply. The transaction price of commercial land this year is not satisfactory.
He pointed out that if foreign-funded companies fail to obtain renovation fees and it is difficult to relocate their offices, it is expected that the vacancy rate may not deteriorate significantly this year. He believes that Sheung Wan and Admiralty have greater room for rent reduction and bargaining. It is expected that the vacancy rate and rent will fall by 10% to 15% throughout the year. Central rents are more stable. In terms of market performance, although there are large retailers that will reduce retail outlets, owners may not be willing to significantly reduce rents. In addition, most owners currently only want to reduce rents or give rebate discounts. It is expected to stabilize by the end of the year.