The impact of the new pneumonia epidemic on the world economy is beginning to appear rapidly
Economists have analyzed that the scale of China’s economy is now much larger than in 2003. The impact of new pneumonia on international trade and the global economy is bound to far exceed that of SARS.
China is known as the “world factory” and is the world’s largest exporter, exporting a large number of products to various countries. However, after the outbreak of the new virus, Airbus, Toyota, Fushi and other companies have suspended production in China’s factories, which has severely hampered production capacity. Hyundai Motor Korea also pointed out that due to the interruption of the supply of Chinese-made auto parts, the South Korean factory will also suspend operations.
The price of the largest oil importer has fallen by 20%
China is also an important buyer of the international commodity market. It is also the largest importer of oil, soybeans, iron and electronic parts. Recently, China ’s economic activity has decreased, which has greatly hit the demand for commodities. Among them, Brent oil has seen a daily low of US $ 54.05 per barrel. Compared with the high level at the beginning of last month, it has fallen more than 20%. Sildrop, chief analyst for commodities at Sweden’s SEB Bank, said that China’s refineries are reducing the processing of oil, and it is estimated that the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) may need to reduce 2 million barrels of crude oil daily to offset the decline in demand.
The consumer market has also been hit hard. Many international brands have recently reduced their business in China in response to the epidemic situation. For example, Nike announced that half of its stores in China have closed down or reduced business hours. Since the Chinese market accounts for 17% of Nike ’s turnover, it is expected that the epidemic will hit its performance.
The first two quarters of the Asia-Pacific region are not optimistic
The president of the International Monetary Fund (IMF), Georgiyeva, warned that the new virus is disrupting the production and supply chain of enterprises, and tourism and commerce will be affected. China’s share of global GDP has been 4% in 2003 It has increased sharply to 18%, and the downward pressure on the global economy will be stronger than that year. Among them, Japan and other neighboring countries in China have the greatest economic risks. Georgiyeva called on central banks to maintain loose monetary policy and ensure economic growth.
Yuxin Bank chief economist Nelson also pointed out that compared with the outbreak of SARS in 2003, China is now more closely connected with the global economy. Therefore, the decline in China’s production capacity has a greater global impact than that year. Nielsen warns that once the epidemic does not end quickly, countries are likely to extend travel restrictions and crack down on consumption and business investment.
International rating agency Standard & Poor’s estimates that the impact of the new coronavirus on the Asia-Pacific region will be most severe in the first two quarters of this year, and that the economy will resume growth thereafter. Maxson, chief economist at Societe Generale, predicts that the outbreak will cause China’s annual gross domestic product (GDP) to fall by 1%, and global GDP will fall by 0.4%.