The two-month violent shock has caused great damage to the Hong Kong economy
This has been reflected in the sharp fall of Hong Kong stocks since July and the global stock market. In fact, the profits of Hong Kong-listed companies, including real estate stocks, have faced the biggest decline since the 2008 financial crisis. The current downward pressure on the Hong Kong economy is unusual, the most severe in a decade.
The worst quarterly performance of the tsunami shows that the social chaos continues, which may become an excuse for rating agencies to downgrade Hong Kong’s credit rating and increase corporate financing costs. This will not only further impact the economy, but also attract international financial predators, take the opportunity to speculate in the stock market and set off financial The market is more volatile.
In the second quarter of this year, Hong Kong’s economy recorded a 0.3% quarter-on-quarter decline, which is an important downward signal for the economic downturn. With the recent decline in visitor arrivals, the decline has further expanded to about 40%, and retail, hotel and catering industries are operating more. Difficulties, there are already unpaid leave for retail and hotel employees. It is not ruled out that layoffs will occur later, and the unemployment rate will rise rapidly at any time to combat overall private consumption.
Although the economic data for the third quarter will not be officially announced at the end of October, from the perspective of the recent “life-saving” in various industries, the economy in the third quarter has experienced negative growth and a technical recession is expected. It is more likely to be 08. The worst quarterly performance since the financial tsunami in 2009 recorded a year-on-year decline of 7.8% in the first quarter of 2009.
Real estate stocks earned the lowest in 2009
If Hong Kong fails to stop the storm in the short term, and fears that the economic recession in Hong Kong will be much more serious than expected, the economic contraction time will be longer than the negative growth in the four consecutive years of the financial tsunami.
In fact, in the third quarter of this year, Hong Kong stocks have been falling. The cumulative decline has so far approached 10%. It has become the tailnote of the world’s major stock markets. Some institutional investors have reduced their holdings of Hong Kong stocks. The main reason is that the average earnings of listed companies this year are falling. 20%, the shrinkage situation is the most serious since 2008.
Henderson Land, which just announced its interim results, earned 7.5 billion yuan in half a year. The profit level was the lowest in ten years, which was related to the decrease in land sales revenue. In fact, social chaos has hindered real estate developers’ sales plans. Some properties have been forced to be postponed, but the actual impact has not yet fully come out. The adjustment pressure on real estate stocks may not be fully released.
The biggest decline in public stocks in a decade
Hong Kong stocks fell in the hardest hit areas. In addition to real estate stocks, there were also banking stocks. The economic downturn had the greatest impact on the banking industry. On the one hand, the overall loan demand fell, on the other hand, the provision for bad and bad debts increased, plus low interest rates. The environment continues, interest income is under pressure, and bank stocks such as HSBC are difficult to operate.
Hong Kong’s economy has weakened, and defensive public stocks are also difficult to protect themselves. It affects electricity and gas consumption. CLP Holdings fell nearly a year low, while gas stocks plummeted by half a day, the biggest drop in a decade.
The facts are in front of us. At present, the first priority is to stop the riots, restore normal social order as soon as possible, and refocus on developing the economy and improving people’s livelihood. Otherwise, all Hong Kong people will have to pay a heavy price to become a big loser.