The property market’s tone has not changed, only short-term fluctuations

The Sino-US trade war has renewed disputes. Although the market expects only short-term fluctuations, the property market’s favorable tone has not changed. In the short term, due to stock market volatility, there are many psychological effects, which affects the market trading atmosphere, but it is difficult to reverse the property price rise.

The Sino-US trade war started at the beginning of last year has become an important event affecting the global economy, the stock market and the property market. Although according to market analysis, the current US President Trump suddenly threatened to increase tariffs, but only a small twist in trade negotiations, the two countries will eventually reach a consensus on trade wars, and will not hinder the medium and long-term economic and property market trends.

Supply less, help property prices rise steadily

In fact, many of the basic factors affecting the property market have not changed. For example, the unemployment rate is still as low as 2.8%, which is close to the employment situation of the whole people. I believe that there is not much chance of a rapid deterioration in the short term. As for the supply side, as the proportion of public and private housing is changed to seven or three ratios, and the land supply is insufficient, the market expects that the medium and long-term supply is insufficient, which will help the property prices to rise steadily.

At the same time, Hong Kong still maintains a low interest rate environment. Although the bank has raised interest rates slightly in September last year, the current mortgage interest rate has generally maintained at 2.375%, which is still extremely low, even lower than the rental return rate of some small and medium-sized units. As the market expects a lower chance of raising interest rates this year, as long as the interest rate does not rise and the situation of “flat renting” continues, I believe that the chance of a sharp fall in property prices is low.

However, the current property market is dominated by users, while users are very affected by employment and salary increases. If economic growth continues to be sluggish, affecting business investment, including reducing wages or increasing the number of people, will inevitably affect the property market. Growth momentum.

Therefore, the market generally believes that unless the trade war negotiations unexpectedly “break the game”, the property market or property price rise will continue, but the market trading atmosphere in the short term, or the price increase rate will slow down, but the upward trend Not reversed.