Huang Jianye: The price of the property peaks at the top of the “rest break”. The new housing policy raises interest rates. The annual increase is only 12%.
The trend of the residential property market has weakened. In the middle of the year, the chairman of the Midland Group (01200), Huang Jianye, who is expected to rise by 17% to 18% this year, is bluntly saying that the property market is under the guise of the negative factors. The property price has been “temporarily peaked” and it is difficult to There is an increase, and will only last for the first half of the 12% increase.
Huang Jianye pointed out that in the first half of the year, the residential property market was improving. The first quarter was booming and the second quarter was more prosperous. The market was extremely optimistic. Both the primary and secondary markets were hot. In the first half of the year, property prices have risen by 12%. However, since July, it has been affected by external factors, and the second-hand transaction has been sparse. The property market has entered a cooling-off period and a slowdown period.
Reversal in the third quarter
Huang Jianye believes that the housing market has reversed since the third quarter due to three unfavorable factors, including the Sino-US trade war, the government’s new property market measures and interest rate hikes. The above-mentioned several factors, especially the trade war, have caused the stock market to fluctuate greatly. The property market has been overshadowed. The property market is like a boat, and the most luxurious mansions and office sales have been greatly reduced.
He believes that after the introduction of the new policy, the new market will be sold at the market price. If the second-hand owners want to ship in the third quarter, they will have to cut the price by 3% to 5%. The fourth quarter will be “fixed”, leading to the second half of the building. There will be no increase in the price.
Huang Jianye expects that the number of registered private property in the first half of this year will be about 17,830, down about 4% year-on-year; the amount is expected to reach 248 billion yuan, up about 3% year-on-year. A record high. Although the property market is expected to be adjusted in the second half of the year, it is estimated that the number of second-hand residential registrations in the first half of the year is about 47,630, up 6% year-on-year; the amount is 374 billion yuan, up nearly 20% year-on-year. It is estimated that the total value of property transactions in the whole year will reach 790 billion to 800 billion yuan, a record high after 1997.
The basic factors have not changed hardly
For this year’s property market or for the “anticlimactic”, Huang Jianye said, “This year has risen enough. The adjustment is normal and there is a rise and fall first.” Because of the strong market demand, coupled with strong industry support, the property market is basically positive. No change, the property price is difficult to fall. As for the trend of property prices next year, Huang Jianye said that because the factors of change are too large, he will not make predictions, but he is worried that if the United States continues to “shrink the table”, the value of global assets will fall. However, if the Tai Wan District and the High Speed Rail can attract Mainland professionals to come to Hong Kong to buy flats, the demand for housing will increase and Hong Kong property prices will have the opportunity to be independent. The supply of land in Hong Kong has always been inadequate. He supports reclamation and speeds up the approval of agricultural land and increases the supply of future housing.
Fully develop the market in Dawan District
Even if the property market has already peaked, Huang Jianye has indicated that he will not change his investment strategy of “bricks”. He firmly believes that the property market will be higher than one wave and will not affect confidence due to short-term volatility. Therefore, 60% of assets are maintained from property and cash. 10%, the rest are stocks and bonds. In the future, there may be one or two properties, but they will only be exchanged and will not be reduced.
Due to the optimistic development of Dawan District, its affiliated companies will vigorously develop business in Dawan District. He also has investment shops and office buildings in the Mainland.